Fertility since 1950: how far it has fallen, and where it is still high

The UN Population Division estimates the total fertility rate — the number of children a woman would have over her life at one year's rates — for 222 countries and territories in every year from 1950 to 2023, all from a single revision, World Population Prospects 2024. Read across those seventy-four years, it records one of the largest and most widespread changes in any series on this site. This piece follows it: how far the middle moved, how many countries now sit below two children per woman and when they got there, where the fall was steepest, where the rate is still high, and the few places where it has risen. The figures are as they stood on 14 November 2026; the statistic page is the one kept current.

The middle fell by two-thirds

In 1950 the middle country of the 222 read 5.8740 children per woman. It rose a little at first, to 6.1088 in 1960, and then began a fall that has not stopped: below 5 in 1975, below 4 in 1983, below 3 in 1995 and below 2.5 in 2003. In 2023 it read 1.9617. These are medians — the country in the middle of the list each year, not an average weighted by population, and not the same country from one year to the next.

The whole field moved, not only its middle. In 1950 the middle half of countries ran from 4.2333 to 6.6034; in 2023 it runs from 1.4842 to 3.0573. In 1950, 150 countries read 5 or more; in 2023, seven do. And 135 of the 222 now read less than half of their own 1950 figure.

Below two children per woman

Demographers treat a rate of about 2.1 as the level at which a population with low child mortality and no migration eventually replaces itself. That is a rule of thumb, not a figure in the data, and the counts here are simply of stored values under 2.1. In 1970, 17 countries read below it. By 1990 there were 55, by 2010 there were 94, and in 2023 there were 120 — more than half of the 222. The middle country itself crossed in 2019.

Most of the 120 have been under 2.1 for decades: 24 have stayed below it since the 1970s, 20 since the 1980s and 21 since the 1990s. But 33 crossed only in 2010 or later, among them Sri Lanka in 2015, Mexico in 2016, Türkiye in 2017, Argentina in 2018, Nepal in 2019, and India and the Philippines in 2020.

The low end has gone further still. Fifty-nine countries and territories read below 1.5 in 2023, and eight read below 1. Macau, at 0.6616, has the lowest reading in the file, followed by Hong Kong at 0.7169, South Korea at 0.7200 and Taiwan at 0.8700, then Puerto Rico, Singapore, Ukraine and China, at 0.9995. In 2000 only one place read below 1. A rate under 2.1 does not mean a population is already shrinking: that also depends on its age structure, on how long people live and on migration, none of which this measure includes.

Where it fell furthest, and fastest

Across the whole span, the largest falls are of more than five children per woman. Taiwan's reading went from 6.4806 in 1950 to 0.8700 in 2023, a fall of 5.6106; Kuwait's went from 7.1150 to 1.5246. Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Bahrain, Kosovo, Bhutan, South Korea, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Singapore each fell by more than 5.28. Four of those ten are Gulf states.

Measured over twenty years at a time, some falls were very steep. Iran's reading went from 6.5863 in 1982 to 1.8359 in 2002; the Maldives' from 7.0249 in 1984 to 2.2620 in 2004; Algeria's from 7.2110 in 1978 to 2.6911 in 1998; and Singapore's from 6.4042 in 1957 to 1.8256 in 1977. China's fell from 6.0850 in 1970 to 2.7390 in 1980, within a single decade. Rwanda, the highest reading of 1950 at 8.1524, still read 8.0013 in 1983, and reads 3.6982 in 2023.

Where it is still high

Somalia has the highest reading in 2023, at 6.1319, and four more read above 6: Chad (6.1203), Niger (6.0615), DR Congo (6.0505) and the Central African Republic (6.0117). Mali and Angola are also above 5. Twenty-six countries read 4 or more; 24 of them are in Africa, and the other two are Afghanistan, at 4.8403, and Yemen, at 4.5900.

Continent	Measured	Middle country, 1950	Middle country, 2023	Below 2.1 in 2023	4 or more in 2023
Africa	54	6.4239	3.9139	3	24
Oceania	21	6.2191	2.7485	6	0
Asia	51	6.2000	1.9737	28	2
Americas	48	5.8305	1.6107	37	0
Europe	48	2.7657	1.4485	46	0

In 1950 four continents' middle countries stood between 5.8 and 6.5, and Europe's at 2.7657. Every continent's middle has fallen since, but by very different amounts: Asia's and the Americas' by more than four children per woman, to below 2, and Africa's by 2.5100, to 3.9139 — still above where Europe's middle stood in 1950. Africa's own range is wide: Mauritius reads 1.2407 and Cabo Verde 1.5219.

Late peaks, and the few rises

For most countries the highest reading in the series came early: 129 of the 222 reached it between 1951 and 1969. Five reached it only in 1990 or later — Equatorial Guinea in 1990, Chad in 1993, Afghanistan in 1995, Somalia in 1997 and DR Congo in 2000. Three countries read slightly more in 2023 than in 1950, and they are among the highest today: Chad (6.0619 to 6.1203), the Central African Republic (5.9300 to 6.0117) and DR Congo (5.9658 to 6.0505).

The rate has also turned upwards in some countries where it had fallen low. Between 2010 and 2023, 19 countries' readings rose. The largest rises were in Central Asia: Uzbekistan from 2.4421 to 3.5000, and Kazakhstan from 2.6100 to 3.0124, having read 1.8981 in 2000. In Europe, Hungary rose from 1.2570 to 1.4860, and Bulgaria, Romania, Slovakia, Portugal and Bosnia and Herzegovina rose too — every one of them still well below 2.1.

Pakistan, as one case

Pakistan read 6.8000 in 1950, when 40 of the 222 read higher. Its reading changed little for forty years — its highest, 6.8119, came in 1975, and it still read 6.3637 in 1990 — and then fell: below 5 from 2003, below 4 from 2015, and 3.6052 in 2023. Because so many others fell sooner, 41 countries read higher than Pakistan in 2023, almost exactly as many as in 1950, while the middle country had fallen from 5.8740 to 1.9617.

Its neighbours started from similar places. In 1970 Bangladesh read 6.8392, a little above Pakistan's 6.8005; in 2023 it reads 2.1630. India went from 5.7316 in 1950 to 1.9754, below 2.1 since 2020, and Iran from 6.9699 to 1.6952, below 2.1 since 1999. Within Southern Asia only Afghanistan now reads higher than Pakistan; Nepal (1.9841), Sri Lanka (1.9737), the Maldives (1.5752) and Bhutan (1.4625) all read below 2.1. Pakistan's row on the statistic page charts every year.

Reading the series

A total fertility rate is neither a count of births nor a forecast about any woman. It adds up the birth rates of women at each age in a single year, so it falls when women have children later as well as when they have fewer, and it can rise again when postponed births arrive. The figures are the UN's estimates, built from censuses, surveys and birth registration, and the UN ranks nobody on them: "highest" and "lowest" here are a reading of the published values, and neither end of the scale is the better one. A future revision of World Population Prospects will restate past years as well as add new ones; when it does, the statistic page and the yearly tables under it will move, and this piece will not. Births to the youngest mothers are published separately, as the adolescent birth rate.